Merlin's Crystal Ball

Merlin's Crystal Ball
I had the opportunity last week to watch IBM's John W. Thompson and David Barnes demonstrate the early Alpha release of the next release of OS/2 Warp. IBM's loosely-guarded "code-name" for this product is "Merlin". They couldn't have chosen a better name, since this Alpha code gives us a look into the crystal ball to see what's in store for OS/2. I am troubled by what I see.

Now there is lots to be excited about here. For example, the voice navigation feature, probably an adaptation of IBM's VoiceType technology, looks neat and really could make using your computer more productive, assuming you have the hardware to support full-speed voice dictation. Even with what I would guess to be high-speed hardware, David needed to speak slowly and in...broken...tones for the machine to keep up with him. Still, it's something that Microsoft doesn't have - yet. I can see it now: Microsoft will announce that the next release of Windows 95 and NT will include a technology called "VAPID", or "Voice API Drivers" which will allow full-speed voice dictation and navigation integrated into the operating system. They will set up a "industry standard", get several developers to rally around it showing VAPID vaporware, and when you show them your new Merlin system with the voice navigation, they will say, "That's nothing - Microsoft's VAPID Technology will be 10 times better than that when it ships next year". Oh well.

It would also appear that the developers have received a "reality check" on the interface - it looks cleaner, better organized and some dumb IBM-ese has been dropped from settings and utility names. They have appropriated Lotus' SmartCenter and renamed it the "WarpCenter", giving the system a Windows 95-like bar across the screen, but with OS/2's traditional increased functionality.

However, it's what I didn't see that troubles me. I don't see Windows 95 applications in the crystal ball. IBM has been strangely silent on this topic, but it is becoming increasingly clear that Win32 support will not be in Merlin. Since IBM rarely tries to ignore something, hoping it will just "go away", their silence seems odd.

I also don't see much of a radical departure from the past on the interface. While the Workplace Shell is a marvel, the learning curve is very steep - much more so than Windows 95. IBM needs to not only match Microsoft in this regard - they need to be better. This takes extensive usability testing and feedback, something I hope there is enough time to do.

I firmly believe Merlin is a "make it or break it" for OS/2. While IBM will never abandon its users, the success of Merlin will greatly dictate how much money, time and effort is spent developing, selling and supporting future versions of OS/2. It is very important that IBM get this right. IBM has been getting much smarter about OS/2 over the years, and they stand on the threshold of even greater success.

It is that future success that IBM wishes they could see in Merlin's crystal ball - and so do I.

John McDonald